Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-142) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Hunter Henry has posted a colossal 46.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- Hunter Henry’s 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for TEs.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The New England Patriots offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
