Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-142) after it opened @ 33.5 (-110).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry has posted a colossal 46.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry’s 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for TEs.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards