Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Hunter Henry has run a route on 73.8% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry has been among the top pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 30.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Cons

The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (67.9%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards