Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- Hayden Hurst has garnered a colossal 7.2% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among TEs.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a stellar 80.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
