Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
- Gerald Everett has been among the leading TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 37.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
