Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 56.5 (+100) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to total 8.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 5th-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season with their pass rush.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards