Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 95.4% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-slowest in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
