Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

The Steelers are a giant 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 95.4% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards