Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demarcus Robinson

Demarcus RobinsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Demarcus Robinson has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this season (16.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.1%).
Demarcus Robinson has notched far more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus wideouts this year, allowing 9.06 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Demarcus Robinson’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 6.81 yards-per-target vs a 8.46 figure last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards