NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Demarcus RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Demarcus Robinson has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this season (16.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.1%).
- Demarcus Robinson has notched far more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus wideouts this year, allowing 9.06 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Demarcus Robinson’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 6.81 yards-per-target vs a 8.46 figure last season.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
