Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 25.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 133.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards