NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 25.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 133.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
