Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeAndre Hopkins from EV Insight

DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-111/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-111) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).

Pros

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to accumulate 8.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins has totaled a monstrous 111.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
DeAndre Hopkins has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 15th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 134.0) to WRs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards