Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Panthers vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season with their pass rush.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
