Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).

Pros

The Giants are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Giants rank as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 56.2% pass rate.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Darren Waller has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 20th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 5.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards