Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 47.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to total 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Darren Waller has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, catching a mere 57.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 2nd percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards