MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to accrue 4.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among TEs.
- The New York Jets defense has yielded the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (57.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
- The New York Jets pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.99 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The New York Jets defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
