Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+104/-136).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+104) after it opened @ 49.5 (-117).

Pros

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 95.0% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has accumulated a monstrous 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 56.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (158.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing just 59.2% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile among wideouts

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards