Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+104/-136).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+104) after it opened @ 49.5 (-117).
Pros
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 95.0% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- Courtland Sutton has accumulated a monstrous 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 56.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (158.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing just 59.2% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile among wideouts
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
