Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 95.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Cooper Kupp to accrue 12.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 115.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.9%) to WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 6.36 yards-per-target to the position: the least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
117
Receiving Yards
117
Receiving Yards
