Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 29.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to earn 5.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has put up a colossal 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet’s 38.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 90th percentile for TEs.
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards