Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Cons

Christian Kirk has been among the weakest wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 5th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards