NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Buccaneers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
- Chris Godwin has been among the top WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 72.0 yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
