Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-120) after it opened @ 34.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accrue 5.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to be much more involved in his offense’s pass game this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.8% in games he has played).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been among the worst tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 28.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
