Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- CeeDee Lamb has been among the top WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 82.0 yards per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.2%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.2%).
- The New York Giants pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.84 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
