Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be much more involved in his offense’s pass game this week (27.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.3% in games he has played).
- The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (62.7%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, allowing 7.19 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
