Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cameron BrateReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cameron Brate’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-117/-117).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 28.5 (-117) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Cameron Brate has notched a whopping 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in football.
Cons
- Cameron Brate has been among the bottom TEs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.63 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 4th percentile.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
