Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. TEs this year, conceding 5.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a lowly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
