Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cade Otton from EV Insight

Cade OttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (+110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Buccaneers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Cade Otton has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a measly 66.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 19th percentile.
Cade Otton has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 2nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards