Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (+110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Buccaneers have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 67.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- Cade Otton has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a measly 66.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 19th percentile.
- Cade Otton has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
