Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 22.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in a stellar 78.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 120.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards