Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-111).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.9% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (148.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
- Adam Thielen has been among the worst wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 13th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
