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Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

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Adam Thielen

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 1

Falcons vs. Panthers

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-111).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

  • The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Adam Thielen has run a route on 90.9% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 9th-most receiving yards per game in football (148.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
  • Adam Thielen has been among the worst wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 13th percentile.

Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards

Previous Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kylen Granson from EV Insight Next Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Samaje Perine from EV Insight