Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Patriots vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-118) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to garner 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 80.0 yards per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier conditions this week.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.1%) versus WRs since the start of last season (63.1%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.46 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
