Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to accrue 7.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Cons

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards