Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trey Lance from EV Insight

Trey LancePassing Yards

Right now, Trey Lance’s passing yards prop is set at 177.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 177.5 (-110) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).

Pros

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the league.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to attempt 26.7 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
180
Passing Yards