NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Trey LancePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, Trey Lance’s passing yards prop is set at 177.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 177.5 (-110) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the league.
- The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst CB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to attempt 26.7 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
180
Passing Yards
180
Passing Yards
