Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- Trevor Lawrence has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a 58.9% Completion%, ranking in the 6th percentile.
- Trevor Lawrence has been among the worst per-play QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.00 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 3rd percentile.
- The Washington Commanders defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards
235
Passing Yards
