Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.6 passes this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
- Tom Brady has been among the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 319.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest level in the NFL versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (63.5%).
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
303
Passing Yards
303
Passing Yards
