Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Commanders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 207.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 207.5 (-110) after it opened @ 206.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.73 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season (73.9%).
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.78 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-most in the league.
- The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Commanders are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
