Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Saints vs. Titans
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (-132) after it opened @ 225.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Ryan Tannehill has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 7.75 yards-per-target while grading out in the 90th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
- Ryan Tannehill has attempted a mere 27.7 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile among QBs.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the least yards in football (just 188.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
275
Passing Yards
275
Passing Yards
