Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chiefs vs. Lions
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 283.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 283.5 (-110) after it opened @ 298.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the top quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 324.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
314
Passing Yards
314
Passing Yards
