Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 285.5 (-137) after it opened @ 310.5 (-116).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.24 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 10th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
305
Passing Yards