Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 265.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 265.5 (-110) after it opened @ 271.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.7 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the least yards in football (just 180.0 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season (63.8%).
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 6.53 yards-per-target: the least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
308
Passing Yards
308
Passing Yards
