Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matt Ryan from EV Insight

Matt Ryan

Matt RyanPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 1

Texans vs. Colts

Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-135).


  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.63 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in football.
  • The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

  • The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
  • The Houston Texans defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.

Passing Yards

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