Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matt Ryan from EV Insight

Matt RyanPassing Yards

Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 235.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-135).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.63 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in football.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has given their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Cons

The Colts are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 121.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.63 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards