Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 218.5 (-105) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.2% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards