Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Falcons vs. Saints
Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 218.5 (-105) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.2% pass rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards
265
Passing Yards
