Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Patriots vs. Eagles
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (+114/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 223.5 (-145) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (67.1%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.03 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
