Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Mac Jones has been among the best precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 90th percentile.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.6 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards