Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
- Mac Jones has been among the best precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 90th percentile.
- The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 33.6 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
