NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Ravens vs. Texans
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 220.5 (-127) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Houston Texans defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.21 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in football.
- The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Ravens are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.1 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the bottom passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging 192.0 yards per game while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
