NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 225.5 (-115) after it opened @ 224.5 (-102).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 68.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.9 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
