Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 225.5 (-115) after it opened @ 224.5 (-102).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 68.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New York Jets linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 122.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.9 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards