Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 277.5 (-110) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (66.8%).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.03 yards-per-target: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards
302
Passing Yards
