Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 293.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 293.5 (-110) after it opened @ 295.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
- Justin Herbert has been among the leading QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 280.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
293
Passing Yards
293
Passing Yards
