Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 283.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 283.5 (-105) after it opened @ 284.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 39.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 10th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 5th-least yards in football (just 204.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 6.95 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
307
Passing Yards