NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bears vs. 49ers
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 177.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 177.5 (-110) after it opened @ 195.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.9%).
- The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Justin Fields has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 161.0 yards per game while ranking in the 9th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
203
Passing Yards
203
Passing Yards
