Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 177.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 177.5 (-110) after it opened @ 195.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the league vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.9%).
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Justin Fields has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging 161.0 yards per game while ranking in the 9th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
203
Passing Yards