Week 1 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joshua Dobbs from EV Insight

Joshua DobbsPassing Yards

Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 204.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Dobbs to attempt 31.6 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
191
Passing Yards