Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Jets vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-105) after it opened @ 246.5 (-113).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Josh Allen has been among the leading passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 271.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
- Josh Allen has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.66 yards-per-target while checking in at the 87th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 37.3 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 202.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
282
Passing Yards
282
Passing Yards
