Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Rams vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 270.5 (-110) after it opened @ 274.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 128.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 40.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
310
Passing Yards
310
Passing Yards
